心得，于AMZN重击中。

发信人: ManOf35 (stocktrader), 信区: Stock
标 题: 心得，于AMZN重击中。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Apr 27 06:00:47 2007)

卖空AMZN在$43，补空于$49，$52，在$54无奈将空仓转为六月$60期权，损失$13，000
于$40，000 账面价值，与两天之内!!不是两星期，两个月，而是两天!我一年才挣了$
8000。。。。

回过头看看，又一次重温我写下的交易原则，我不知道违背了其中的多少条。哭皇天无
泪，恨咽雨有声。这两天，寸食难进，滴水勘饮，几乎未曾合眼。覆水已难收，花败可
再开? 我看着远在中国的儿子，妻子和母亲,姊妹的照片，我棰心自问，你在干什么。

交易其实很简单，良好的心理素质比交易技能更重要，每个人都可以成为warren
buffet如果他(她)能始终如一地秉承交易原则。从股票交易联想到人生，这使我想起一
句话，人的性格决定命运。伟人之所以成为伟人，在于他具有坚持原则的意志，倒不一
定是什么超凡的资质。无志者常立志，有志者立长志，其实这就是伟人和俗人的区别。
股票交易要遵循原则，作人难道不是这样吗?善有善报，恶有恶报，不是不报，时候未
到。你可以一次次的侥幸，侥幸侥幸再侥幸，一次意外就可以夺去你的生命。泰山崩于
前而不惊，日月骤于身而自若。贫贱何能移其志，富贵安可淫其身。对于心为物役的凡
夫俗子来说，这就像情窦初开青春男孩那梦中人肩上的土地，实在是可望而不可及的理
想高地。

感谢上帝，如果不是我在$54时咬牙换成了期权，我现在已经是看客了，就象这两天无
数因卖空AMZN而破产的交易员一样，这个及时的变化，让我继续残存苟且于游戏之中，
我还有重生的可能。有道是，留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。此去井台招旧部，旌旗十万崭
阎罗。没有时不利兮的感慨，只有劫后余生的庆辛，来日方长啊。最平庸的交易员都会
在运气好的时候挣钱，一个优秀的交易员，更应该懂得在逆境中如何从新堀起。我坚信
，我的交易技能必将在阵痛中升华，在烈火中永生。

我一次又一次的哭，big boy doesn't cry.并且我不想告诉任何人，包括我老婆和我所
亲爱的朋友，这只会使这世界多一个或几个痛心的人。我把它写在这里，为的是让未曾
有这种经历的人得着益处，不必经受这惨裂的折磨而铭记我的教训，即使有一个人能相
信我说的故事(又一次的哭)，我觉得也值得了，对我的经历付之一笑的朋友，若干年之
后，你必能记得这个尘封的哭诉，请伊妹儿我，xxj0431@gmail.com.人如果象石头一样
，不被感情所操纵，可能也就不是人了。想一想我当时追补的心情，可能就像死刑犯杀
人时一样(又一次的哭)，为什么我竟然没想到花35 cents to buy some $50 call,真地
，一点儿也没有(又一次的大哭)。

2004年11月份，我吃了一张交通罚单，包括所有的前后花了我$1500， 那之后，我在方
向盘上贴了一个sticker,到现在没违反过一次交通规则。今天，我在我的钱包里多了一
个卡片，和我的火车月票方在一起，以天天目睹，上书四个字母，AMZN.

附:

这是我总结的一些交易原则；

for the time being, don't start shorting unless you see VIX drops below 10.5
, PCE < 0.5, smart/dump index diverge and bullish articles everywhere on the
internet.

BE PATIENT!!

0) trade is about avoiding mistakes than making profits.
1) before you initiate a trade, write down the reasons for that.
2) no panic any time.
3) stick to stop limit, cut loss early.
4) stick to the plan that you have thought over.
7) don't rush to add to losing positions. be patient.
8) hold on to your position, don't rush to jump from one to another.
9) don't short stock whose market cap is under 5B and volume is less than 3M.
10) don't let one bad trade affect other trades.
14) when you take a hedged position, don't rush to close positions on one
side.
15) usually don't play earnings, not even think about it, if play has to use
OPTION.
16) taking profit, don't hold any position until you have clear conviction
about where market is going.
17) never allocate more than 25% for initial trade, if add, no more than 50%
, newly added shares have

to be cleared quickly if it still doesn't go your way. IF YOU GAMBLE WITH
EVERYTHING YOU HAVE,

EVENTUALY YOU'LL END UP WITH LOSING EVERYTHING.
18) if a stock is boosted sharply against you, should also consider exit
instead of adding more.
19) keep a cool head in case of unexpected catastrophe.
20) don't trade completely based on technical, do some trades based on
valuation.
21) NEVER short on new HIGH day, only consider when it starts to go down.
22) first consider buy puts when you want to short stock, if you short stock
, always thinking about buy

some calls for protection, this may not apply to ETFs.
23) judge of the trend is of vital importance, just assume the trend is
going to continue, don't try to

time the top, in an uptrend, buy on dip, a downtrend, sell on the rebound.
24) cut loss if you lose more than 7%, no compromise, put a stock order
whenever you make one trade.

这是我和一个有二十余年交易经历的人的一枚往来：

from that guy:

We’ve al been there…with me it was puts on YHOO in the 90’s when it was
climbing so fast. And it kept climbing, and climbing climbing. I had
busted my account once years before that (I took it from $2500 to $22,000
back down to $200), so I had already learned my lesson and the losses weren
’t too bad, but ever since the late 90’s I have only traded individual
stocks in a long-term fashion, and only from the long side.


It is why I am a short-term futures trader and only press my account when I
know I have a very solid edge. It makes my account performance “lumpy” –
lots of small gains, quite a few small losses, a few big gains, and most
importantly no large losses. I don’t care if I go a while being flat,
collecting interest, since making up losses is a heck of a lot harder than
swallowing remarks from those who suggest I’m being too conservative.



-----Original Message-----
From: xiangfeng jing [mailto:xxj0431@gmail.com]
Sent: Friday, April 27, 2007 12:31 AM
To: Jason Goepfert


and this is from me:

- Hide quoted text -
Subject: I am not going to call you Mr. Neutral again

- Hide quoted text -


I got hit by AMZN, shorted at $43, added more at $49, $52, changed from
short stock to June puts at $54 and I ended up with a $13,000 loss in 2 days
on a $40K account with margin enabled, to give you an idea what $12K to me,
I made $8000 in one year prior to that, and all this happened in two DAYS!!
! not even two weeks.....I should have covered everything at $50 after hour
, but I made an iceberg big stupid mistake to add more, I believe most
shorts did the same thing, fortunately I changed from short stock to the
same number of June puts, otherwise my whole account could probably have
been margined out like a bunch of other shorts. with these puts, I got hit
almost to death, but I am still alive.


in Nov. 2004 I got a traffic ticket which cost me $1460 ( penaltiy plus
insurance surcharge not including increadr of insurance premium), then I put
a sticker on my driving wheel, I haven't made one violation todate ever
since. today I put a sticker of AMZN in red in my wallet ajacent to my train
ticket so that I can see it everyday , and I decide to carry it in my life
time.


I think one trader could be extremely successful if he never violates the
principles whatever he sets, from a contrarian perspective, it is a good
thing for me to be hit by AMZN when I am with an account of 40K, it helps me
from making the same mistake on my personal account of $200K or even more.